Dim prospects for earthquake prediction

Prospects dim for I . C . job hunters

Friday is the target date for deciding whether to exchange the space now occupied by the Union Bookstore wi th that of the Office of Student Activities. Union administrators, student government representatives and the manager of the bookstore met Monday to iron out the reallocation plan details. ifut student government leaders stressed after the meeting that the decision to move has not been fi...

Rethinking Earthquake Prediction

We re-examine and summarize what is now possible in predicting earthquakes, what might be accomplished (and hence might be possible in the next few decades) and what types of predictions appear to be inherently impossible based on our understanding of earthquakes as complex phenomena. We take predictions to involve a variety of time scales from seconds to a few decades. Earthquake warnings and ...

Colliding Cascades Model for Earthquake Prediction

A wide set of premonitory seismicity patterns is reproduced on a numerical model of seismicity, and their performance in prediction of major earthquakes is evaluated. Seismicity is generated by the Colliding Cascades Model, recently developed by the same authors. The model has a hierarchical structure. It describes the interaction of two cascades: a direct cascade of loading, which is applied t...

Statistical Tests for Evaluating Earthquake Prediction Methods

The impact of including postcursors in the null hypothesis test is discussed. Unequal prediction probabilities can be included in the null hypothesis test using a generalization of the central limit theorem. A test for determining the enhancement factor over random chance is given. The seismic earthquake signal may preferentially precede earthquakes even if the VAN methodology fails to forecast...

Prospects for genetic risk prediction in hypertension.